Photo: Ozgu Ozden, Unsplash
Flying standby at Thanksgiving and the December holidays
In short
The busiest days around the US holidays are predictable, and TSA publishes the numbers.
In 2025, the Sunday after Thanksgiving was the busiest day of the year at TSA checkpoints, and the holidays themselves were quieter than the days around them.
Your first step: pick your travel days with last year's pattern in mind, and plan a backup before you leave.
Is it hard to fly standby at Thanksgiving? On the busiest days, it can be, because more people are flying and flights are fuller. But the busy days are not a mystery. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) publishes how many people it screens every day, and the pattern around the holidays is clear. Use it to choose your days, and keep a plan B ready for the rest.
What the 2025 numbers show
TSA's daily checkpoint figures for 2025 show how traffic rose and fell around the holidays (TSA checkpoint travel numbers, 2025).
Thanksgiving week 2025 (Thanksgiving was Thursday, November 27):
- Wednesday, November 26: 2,753,036 people screened.
- Thursday, November 27, Thanksgiving Day: 1,559,165, the quietest day of the week.
- Sunday, November 30: 3,134,613, the highest figure in TSA's 2025 table.
- Monday, December 1: 2,893,451, still very busy.
TSA had expected this. Before the holiday, it said it was prepared to screen more than 17.8 million people from November 25 to December 2, "with over 3 million just on Sunday" (TSA, November 21, 2025).
Christmas and New Year 2025:
- TSA expected its heaviest day to be Sunday, December 28, followed by December 19, 20, 21, 27 and 29 (TSA, December 22, 2025).
- Its table shows 2,924,593 people screened on December 28.
- Christmas Eve (2,236,205), Christmas Day (2,066,118) and New Year's Eve (2,291,360) were well below the peak days around them.
One caution: these are people going through security at US airports. They tell you how busy airports were, not how many seats were left on any flight, and not your chances of getting on. Those depend on the flight, the airline and the standby list that day.
Flights are full much of the year, too. US airlines' scheduled passenger load factor, the share of seats filled, was 82.18 percent over the 12 months from July 2025 to June 2026, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS).
The 2026 calendar
The 2026 holidays fall on these days (OPM federal holidays):
- Thanksgiving: Thursday, November 26, 2026.
- Christmas Day: Friday, December 25, 2026.
- New Year's Day: Friday, January 1, 2027.
If 2026 follows the 2025 pattern, the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Sunday and Monday after will be the hardest days, and Thanksgiving Day itself will be among the easiest. Around Christmas, the weekend after the holiday will be busy, and the holidays themselves quieter. In 2025, TSA published its forecasts a few days before each holiday. Check its press releases in November and December for the 2026 numbers.
Planning moves that don't depend on loads
You don't need to know how full a flight is to give yourself better odds.
- Fly on the holiday itself. In 2025, Thanksgiving Day, Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and New Year's Eve were all well below the peak days.
- Leave early, come back late. Going out before the Wednesday rush, and returning after the Monday after Thanksgiving, avoids the two hardest stretches.
- Avoid the Sunday after. It was the busiest day of 2025 at TSA checkpoints.
- Look at more than one airport. A nearby airport with other airlines can give you more flights to list on.
- Travel with carry-on only. If you miss one flight, you can move to the next without waiting for a bag. Our packing guide covers what to bring.
- Keep connections simple. Every extra airline change on separate tickets is another chance to get stuck. See Separate tickets: what non-revs need to know at a connection.
Plan B, before you need it
On busy days, assume you might not get on the first flight. Before you leave home:
- Know the next two or three flights you could list on, on the same airline and any others you can use.
- Note an airport hotel option, and whether it has a shuttle, in case you are there overnight.
- Check what a revenue ticket would cost for the one leg that matters most. Sometimes buying a seat for a key day is worth it.
- Tell anyone waiting for you that your arrival may change.
- Pack for one extra night, with medication, chargers and a change of clothes in your carry-on.
Check for staff travel restrictions on peak dates
Staff travel policies can restrict travel on peak dates. These are sometimes called embargo or blackout dates. Each employer and airline sets its own, so we can't list them here.
Verify before you fly: check your employer's staff travel policy, and the rules of every airline you plan to fly, for any restrictions on holiday dates.
What this means for you
- Choose your days from the pattern. Fly on the holiday itself, or well before and after the rush.
- Avoid the Sunday after Thanksgiving and the weekend after Christmas if you can.
- Check TSA's 2026 forecasts when they come out in November and December.
- Check for embargo dates in your employer's and each airline's staff travel rules.
- Have a plan B ready before you leave: backup flights, a hotel option, and one extra night in your bag.
Rules differ by airline and change. Your employer's staff travel policy always wins.
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